The impending Russia-NATO war.
With the sinking of the Russian black sea flagship the Moskva by a purported Ukrainian local made Neptune missiles as confirmed by the US and Ukraine, the escalation to a possibly Russian NATO war looks inevitable.
The 510-crew missile cruiser was a symbol of Russia's military power, leading its naval assault on Ukraine. However Russia claims the ship sustained damage during a fire that broke out onboard and was being towed ashore before it's final demise.
But subsequent Russian action on Ukraine after this incident does not support their narrative as they have intensified the war efforts in the cities of Ukraine targeting the Vizar ship missile factory, located near Kyiv’s international airport, bombarding and indiscriminately pummeling many cities, killing a number of civilians in the process which appears to be a revenge action for the sinking of the Moskva, drawing blood along the trail of destruction.
This latest assault shattered the relative calm that has been witnessed in some of the cities in recent weeks. This revenge action was anticipated by the Ukrainian military forces evident in the comment made by their spokes man shortly after the incidence thus:
"The Moskva cruiser strike hit not only the ship itself; it hit the enemy’s imperial ambitions. We are all aware that we will not be forgiven for this”
True to the statement Russia seems to be retaliating for the loss of it’s prized war ship like a wounded lion that is blood thirsty and has been reported to be indiscriminately shelling the cities of UKraine. This action if true, certainly will not restore the Muskva but will paint them in a very bad light. As a disciplined nation that respects and abides by international law governing nations their war actions should be targeted and strategic towards achieving a defined objective and not to indiscriminately shell residential buildings occupied by civilians. This callous action will no doubt attract the attention of war crime investigators. (3)
Russia has formally lodged a protest letter to the USA on the continued funneling of weapons to Ukraine which they state was fueling the war and could bring “unpredictable consequences” (1).
Russia will most likely try to block channels of weapons supply to Ukraine and may view it necessary to strike a NATO member country that is enabling the weapons delivery in self defense. This action could precipitate a cascade of events that could culminate into a direct confrontation with NATO which will be obliged to activate article 5 which states that “an attack on one member of NATO is an attack on all of it’s members”. The war will then become an open conflict between Russia and NATO which Russia cannot win without deploying it's nuclear arsenal which will spell doom for the whole world if this becomes a reality.
The only possible situation that can stop the escalation of the war into a wider conflict with NATO is a regime change in Russia. If this escalation does occur the world needs to invariably prepare for a nuclear catastrophy which might be provoked by Russia as a counter offensive to stave-off defeat but in so doing will plunge the world into a nuclear Armageddon capable of destroying the world in its effort to avoid capitulation.
Recently a respected Russian technocrat, Sergey Karaganov, acknowledged the ongoing conflict with Ukraine to be a proxy war between Russia and the west which may inevitably lead to a direct confrontation with NATO if the weapons funneling to Ukraine continues by western nations.
Said Sergey Karaganov "it is obvious that targets in Europe could or will be hit in order to stop lines of communications. Then the war could escalate. At this juncture it is becoming more and more plausible. I think the Joint chiefs of staff of US armed forces are of the same opinion as I am".
His analysis was pinpoint and devoid of bias. He regretted that the situation has to come to this, with Russia losing its moral superiority as a result of fighting an existential threat.
The world citizens needs to hope for a quick resolution of this conflict as everyone will be impacted by the war if it spreads beyond Ukraine borders. Already some consequences of the war are being felt around the globe with the increasing prices of essential commodities and the high cost of running vehicles due to the increase in the price of fuel.
Russia and Ukraine are major bread basket of the world as they both supply nearly 30% of the world's wheat from the vast and fertile farmlands in the Black Sea region.
Russia is the world largest exporter of fertilizer and exported $7.6B worth of fertilizer in 2020, produces close to 80 million metric tons of wheat a year and exports close to 30 to 37 million tons, while Ukraine exported $632.7 million worth of fertilizer in 2021 and about 20 to 25 million tons of wheat per year.
Russia and Ukraine were respectively the 1st and 4th largest exporter of wheat in the world in 2020. They both account for nearly a third of global wheat supplies, and prices are reaching record highs because of the war’s impact on shipments. (2)
The longer the war goes on the more likely we may descend into a global recession due to the harsh economic impact of the war and sanctions imposed on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.
There is no doubt president Vladmir Putin would not back down until he achieves a tangible victory to warrant the invasion. However America and the west are not ready to give him such a victory which will inevitably bring the world to a tipping point. We can only hope that cool heads will eventually prevail and give peace a chance which may come through internal intervention from within Russia.
References
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/14/russia-warns-us-stop-arming-ukraine/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/244263/exports-of-cereals-by-russia-2002-2013
https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1113782