Russia's grave miscalculation in invading Ukraine
In my earlier article “(Is Ukraine a gold mine for the west? on the Russian-Ukraine impending war, I had predicted that Ukraine will be a grave yard for Russia if it attempted a full scale invasion as this will be tantamount to a suicide mission if it goes ahead without focusing on the Donbas eastern region where there has been ongoing war since 2014.
That warning seems not to have been headed, as the situation in Ukraine has shown Russia's folly and their underestimation of the will of Ukrainians to fight to the last man in defense of their freedom and country.
The war is now taking longer than the Russian strategist predicted with Russia losing thousands of men. Tanks and hardware mostly belonging to Russia lie in ruins littered all over the fields of Ukraine indicating the ferocity of the war and how the Ukrainians have dealt a great blow to the Russian military might.
Although the resistance have equally had a devastating effect on the Ukrainians as it has come with great cost of destruction of their cities and loss of thousands of civilian lives with Mariupol suffering the greatest ruin where 90 percent of the city lie in waste from the Russian bombardment. The Russians strategy appears to be to capture Mariupol in order to create a land corridor between Crimea and the eastern Donbas region that leads into Russia thereby fully integrating the Crimea peninsular into Russia land mass.
The Ukrainians have put on a stiff and brave resistance to Russian aggression despite being outnumbered by the Russian machine and achieving the impossible with limited resources and Russian monopoly of the skies which gave them superior advantage.
They gallantly repelled the Russian forces in many fronts making them to resort to launching long range missiles into Ukraine cities since they were losing the close combats with the Ukrainians.
The Ukrainians also launched counter-offensive in many fronts retaking territories held by Russia, forcing them to retreat and withdraw from held positions including around the outskirts of Kieve the countries capital.
Talks have continued in order to find lasting resolution to the hostility. The Russians have made some demands including recognition of Crimea as a Russian territory, ceding of the Donbas region as well as maintaining neutrality in world affairs. The Ukrainians have shown willingness to compromise on the issue of neutrality but are unwilling to give up or recognize Russia's claims to any of its territory.
President Putin will like to come out from this war looking victorious to impress on the Russians that the "special military operation" as he puts it was worth the effort despite the huge loses they have suffered in personnel and military hardware.
However his position on the seat of power looks very precarious more than ever before with Russian foreign assets frozen and the crippling sanctions on his country that has paralyzed and sent the economy to the dark ages. His situation has not been made any lighter with the seizure of the foreign assets of the oligarch bilionaires that wield huge influence over Russian affairs.
The Oligarchs were formerly the de facto king makers and held sway in Russian politics prior to President Putin's ascendancy to power, but his long reign has given him ample time to whittle down their influence and consolidate power to their detriment. The oligarchs seems to have lost considerable influence over him and Russian politics.
How Putin survives this crisis will very much depend on how he plays his cards going forward but he has shown in the past to posses a canny and adept disposition to survive such turmoil. His best chances of warding off any threat to his office is for the war to come to an end soon and his ability of reaching an agreement with Ukraine that also placards and pacifies the west in order that the sanctions that are choking his country imposed at the onset of the war is lifted.
Russia has had to recalibrate it's objective and mission for the invasion because they have been unable to make progress in capturing Kieve the seat of power and have been held off by the resistance and defense put on by the Ukrainians.
This situation may have compelled them to announce the completion of the first phase of the mission and focusing on the Donbas region of Ukraine which may have giving them a quick victory if that strategy was implemented earlier. This pronouncement was apparently a face saving measure.
The west and NATO have funneled lots of arms and ammunition, including anti tank weapons, javelins, stingers and drones to Ukraine which have made massive impact and difference in the war. The west are doing everything possible to ensure President Putin does not emerge victorious in this war, because if he does, he will certainly take on another country and the question that will agitate the minds of the eastern european countries is who will be next.
A victory for Russia will be unbearable and humiliating to NATO , US ,Europe and the UK which will also embolden Russia to be brazen and atrocious in future relationship with its adversaries.
The best outcome for everyone is to have a stalemate in the war which will facilitate a peaceful resolution where no side possesses an advantage to make unreasonable demands that will make it difficult to achieve peace.
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